Researchers estimated nearly 2,500 excess cases of Valley fever, which they said are attributable to the prior drought and more than offset the cases averted during the drought.įor example, Kern County has the highest incidence rates of coccidioidomycosis in California and is among the hottest and driest regions. She said during these periods other “competitor” bacteria dies off, giving the fungus a chance to spread and prosper when rainfall returns.Ĭases of the disease spike in years that follow drought, such as during the wet season in 2016 through 2017. "During droughts, winter precipitation is too low for proliferation of the organism in the soil, and less fungus in the soil means lower risk of inhaling a pathogenic spore," Head said. They found drought conditions initially suppress transmission, but transmission strongly rebounds in the years immediately following drought. The researchers estimate the causal effect of two major droughts in California, from 2007 to 2009 and again from 2012 to 2015, on the overall transmission rates of coccidioidomycosis. We now understand that transmission within these areas is strongly enhanced by heat.” Incidence rate ratios obtained from distributed-lag non-linear model testing for the associationīetween incidence of coccidioidomycosis during autumn (September to November) and lagged We’ve seen that rates in northern San Joaquin Valley counties are 15 times higher than they were two decades ago. “This research is the first to find evidence that California’s recent droughts are also exacerbating the transmission of an emerging infectious disease in the state. “We know that the extreme precipitation deficit that has plagued California in recent decades is one of the greatest environmental challenges in the western U.S.,” said Jennifer Head, assistant environmental health science researcher at UC Berkeley School of Public Health, who led the research. Scientists say this could explain why rates have skyrocketed more dramatically in wetter, cooler counties. Arid counties like Kern and Kings see the most fluctuation in precipitation, while wetter coastal counties like Monterey and Ventura see the most fluctuations in temperature. They found multiyear cycles of dry conditions followed by a wet winter can amplify Valley fever transmission. Scientists analyzed more than 81,000 coccidioidomycosis surveillance records from state and local agencies collected over 20 years. Spatial and seasonal trends in coccidioidomycosis incidence, precipitation, and temperature. California is experiencing the highest recorded level of Valley fever and experts are starting to study how much of a role the state’s changing climate plays in the future spread of this and other diseases. In a study published Wednesday in Lancet Planetary Health, a group of scientists report how California’s recent droughts have helped drive transmissions of the pathogen. People can contract it by breathing in dust that contains spores of the Coccidioides fungus, which grows in soil and can be stirred up by strong winds, digging or other disturbances. Valley fever, scientifically known as coccidioidomycosis, is an infectious disease that affects residents of the Southwest. (CN) - California researchers say climate change is driving a statewide spike in Valley fever throughout the Southwest as the region experiences swings between extreme drought and warming temperatures to unexpectedly high precipitation.
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